Governor forecast
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The map
Thirty-six states elect a governor this year; the rest are shown in gray. Hover over a state for the race, or click it to jump to the race below.
How many governorships
All 36 races
Sorted from most to least competitive. Click a race for how its forecast is built and every poll. Cook Political Report ratings are shown for comparison only; they are not used by the model.
About this forecast
Polls carry most of the weight. Governor races are far less tied to national partisanship than Senate or House races. Vermont keeps electing a Republican and Kansas has elected Democrats, so state partisanship, the national mood and incumbency predict governor races poorly on their own: about 16 points of error per race in our tests of past elections. Where there are polls, they do most of the work.
The fundamentals are estimated from governor races alone, every contested race since 2000, with partisanship and the national environment allowed to matter more in recent cycles as governor races have nationalized. Candidates' past statewide and House results count, and a race two candidates have run against each other before counts once.
No polls? Five races have no public general-election polls. Their forecasts rest on the fundamentals alone and carry wide ranges. Historically, races like these produce surprises more often than you might expect.
Alaska uses ranked-choice voting with three Republicans on the ballot. We use polls that report the final round; for first-choice polls, eliminated candidates' votes transfer at the rates Alaska saw in 2022.
No money input. Governor candidates report to their states, not the FEC, so there's no comparable fundraising data. Governors are simulated alongside the Senate and House with the same national swings, so a good night for one party shows up across all three. How the model works.