Senate forecast
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Our forecast against the betting markets
Tap any dot to see one of our simulated elections, or play a random one.
Pick the winners
Call any race by clicking its state (once for the Democrat or independent, twice for the Republican, three times to undo) or with the buttons below. We keep only the simulated elections where your picks come true, so you see how control shifts in both chambers.
How many seats?
How often each seat total came up across our simulations. Independents are counted with Democrats.
Every Senate poll
All the polls in our averages, newest first. "Adjusted" corrects for each pollster's typical lean, likely versus registered voters and campaign sponsorship. "Weight" is each poll's share of its state's average.
All 35 races
Closest first. Click a state for its full race page.